Updated November 2, 2020, 1 day from election day 2020.

Who will win the electoral college?

Biden is projected to win between 230 and 435 electoral college votes. Trump is projected to win between 103 and 308 electoral college votes. In 25000 simulations of the presidential election from the perspective of November 2, 2020, Biden wins 84% and Trump wins 15%.

Who will win each state?

Alabama

Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 46% of the vote in Alabama. Trump is projected to receive between 53% and 66%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Alabama, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

Alaska

Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 53% of the vote in Alaska. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 58%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Alaska, Biden wins 22% and Trump wins 77%.

Arizona

Biden is projected to receive between 46% and 55% of the vote in Arizona. Trump is projected to receive between 43% and 54%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Arizona, Biden wins 63% and Trump wins 37%.

Arkansas

Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 41% of the vote in Arkansas. Trump is projected to receive between 57% and 70%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Arkansas, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

California

Biden is projected to receive between 56% and 68% of the vote in California. Trump is projected to receive between 27% and 39%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in California, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Colorado

Biden is projected to receive between 50% and 59% of the vote in Colorado. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Colorado, Biden wins 97% and Trump wins 3%.

Connecticut

Biden is projected to receive between 48% and 65% of the vote in Connecticut. Trump is projected to receive between 27% and 45%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Connecticut, Biden wins 96% and Trump wins 4%.

Delaware

Biden is projected to receive between 49% and 65% of the vote in Delaware. Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 43%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Delaware, Biden wins 99% and Trump wins 1%.

District of Columbia

Biden is projected to receive between 80% and 98% of the vote in District of Columbia. Trump is projected to receive between 1% and 15%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in District of Columbia, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Florida

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 55% of the vote in Florida. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Florida, Biden wins 69% and Trump wins 30%.

Georgia

Biden is projected to receive between 36% and 63% of the vote in Georgia. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Georgia, Biden wins 51% and Trump wins 48%.

Hawaii

Biden is projected to receive between 58% and 67% of the vote in Hawaii. Trump is projected to receive between 22% and 39%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Hawaii, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Idaho

Biden is projected to receive between 30% and 43% of the vote in Idaho. Trump is projected to receive between 55% and 68%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Idaho, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

Illinois

Biden is projected to receive between 52% and 60% of the vote in Illinois. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 47%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Illinois, Biden wins 99% and Trump wins 1%.

Indiana

Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 47% of the vote in Indiana. Trump is projected to receive between 48% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Indiana, Biden wins 4% and Trump wins 96%.

Iowa

Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 53% of the vote in Iowa. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 55%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Iowa, Biden wins 44% and Trump wins 55%.

Kansas

Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 48% of the vote in Kansas. Trump is projected to receive between 45% and 61%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Kansas, Biden wins 11% and Trump wins 89%.

Kentucky

Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 47% of the vote in Kentucky. Trump is projected to receive between 50% and 65%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Kentucky, Biden wins 2% and Trump wins 98%.

Louisiana

Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 44% of the vote in Louisiana. Trump is projected to receive between 52% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Louisiana, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

Maine

Biden is projected to receive between 50% and 59% of the vote in Maine. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 48%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Maine, Biden wins 98% and Trump wins 2%.

Maryland

Biden is projected to receive between 57% and 67% of the vote in Maryland. Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 40%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Maryland, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Massachusetts

Biden is projected to receive between 61% and 71% of the vote in Massachusetts. Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 37%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Massachusetts, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Michigan

Biden is projected to receive between 48% and 56% of the vote in Michigan. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 51%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Michigan, Biden wins 86% and Trump wins 14%.

Minnesota

Biden is projected to receive between 48% and 57% of the vote in Minnesota. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Minnesota, Biden wins 86% and Trump wins 14%.

Mississippi

Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 48% of the vote in Mississippi. Trump is projected to receive between 51% and 61%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Mississippi, Biden wins 2% and Trump wins 98%.

Missouri

Biden is projected to receive between 42% and 51% of the vote in Missouri. Trump is projected to receive between 49% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Missouri, Biden wins 11% and Trump wins 89%.

Montana

Biden is projected to receive between 41% and 52% of the vote in Montana. Trump is projected to receive between 47% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Montana, Biden wins 19% and Trump wins 81%.

Nebraska

Biden is projected to receive between 27% and 49% of the vote in Nebraska. Trump is projected to receive between 45% and 69%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Nebraska, Biden wins 12% and Trump wins 88%.

Nevada

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 56% of the vote in Nevada. Trump is projected to receive between 42% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Nevada, Biden wins 76% and Trump wins 23%.

New Hampshire

Biden is projected to receive between 49% and 61% of the vote in New Hampshire. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 50%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Hampshire, Biden wins 92% and Trump wins 7%.

New Jersey

Biden is projected to receive between 54% and 63% of the vote in New Jersey. Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 45%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Jersey, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

New Mexico

Biden is projected to receive between 50% and 62% of the vote in New Mexico. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 49%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New Mexico, Biden wins 96% and Trump wins 4%.

New York

Biden is projected to receive between 58% and 68% of the vote in New York. Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 41%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in New York, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

North Carolina

Biden is projected to receive between 45% and 56% of the vote in North Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 59%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in North Carolina, Biden wins 56% and Trump wins 43%.

North Dakota

Biden is projected to receive between 33% and 43% of the vote in North Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 52% and 65%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in North Dakota, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

Ohio

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 54% of the vote in Ohio. Trump is projected to receive between 43% and 58%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Ohio, Biden wins 42% and Trump wins 58%.

Oklahoma

Biden is projected to receive between 30% and 43% of the vote in Oklahoma. Trump is projected to receive between 55% and 67%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Oklahoma, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

Oregon

Biden is projected to receive between 52% and 61% of the vote in Oregon. Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 46%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Oregon, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Pennsylvania

Biden is projected to receive between 43% and 61% of the vote in Pennsylvania. Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 54%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Pennsylvania, Biden wins 71% and Trump wins 29%.

Rhode Island

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 69% of the vote in Rhode Island. Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 49%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Rhode Island, Biden wins 91% and Trump wins 9%.

South Carolina

Biden is projected to receive between 40% and 51% of the vote in South Carolina. Trump is projected to receive between 43% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in South Carolina, Biden wins 21% and Trump wins 79%.

South Dakota

Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 49% of the vote in South Dakota. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 62%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in South Dakota, Biden wins 10% and Trump wins 90%.

Tennessee

Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 49% of the vote in Tennessee. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 63%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Tennessee, Biden wins 11% and Trump wins 89%.

Texas

Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 54% of the vote in Texas. Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 57%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Texas, Biden wins 42% and Trump wins 58%.

Utah

Biden is projected to receive between 34% and 48% of the vote in Utah. Trump is projected to receive between 46% and 60%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Utah, Biden wins 7% and Trump wins 93%.

Vermont

Biden is projected to receive between 53% and 63% of the vote in Vermont. Trump is projected to receive between 29% and 40%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Vermont, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

Virginia

Biden is projected to receive between 50% and 59% of the vote in Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 49%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Virginia, Biden wins 96% and Trump wins 4%.

Washington

Biden is projected to receive between 54% and 65% of the vote in Washington. Trump is projected to receive between 29% and 46%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Washington, Biden wins more than 99% and Trump wins less than 1%.

West Virginia

Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 45% of the vote in West Virginia. Trump is projected to receive between 53% and 64%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in West Virginia, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

Wisconsin

Biden is projected to receive between 47% and 58% of the vote in Wisconsin. Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 52%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Wisconsin, Biden wins 81% and Trump wins 18%.

Wyoming

Biden is projected to receive between 27% and 38% of the vote in Wyoming. Trump is projected to receive between 55% and 68%. Out of 25000 simulations of the election in Wyoming, Biden wins less than 1% and Trump wins more than 99%.

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